Polls Leave Collins-Jackson Race…Polls Leave Collins-Jackson Race UnsettledCoverage from Bangor Daily News, Newsweek, and others
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Polling in Maine's 2026 Senate contest shows Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic nominee Troy Jackson in a close race, with surveys producing narrow and sometimes conflicting leads.
A CNN/SSRS poll put Jackson at 48% and Collins at 45%, within the margin of error, while other late-September polls ranged from a Collins lead to a Jackson lead. The surveys also point to economic and cost-of-living concerns as prominent voter priorities, alongside views on President Donald Trump, tariffs, and abortion policy.
It adds reporting on the narrowing crossover coalition that has historically helped Collins compete.
Bangor Daily News
Key Issues
01
No clear polling leader
Late-September polls disagree over whether Jackson or Collins leads, with reported margins close enough that surveys do not establish a reliable advantage. The contest remains tightly balanced despite Jackson leads in some polls and a narrow Collins lead in another.
Stable
Drawn from 3 articles
02
Trump alignment weighs on Collins
Disapproval of Trump and opposition to his agenda remain liabilities for Collins, while Jackson’s support draws heavily on opposition to Collins and her relationship with Trump. This pressure has not produced a decisive polling break.
Stable
Drawn from 3 articles
03
Affordability and tariffs shape voter concerns
Economic and cost-of-living concerns rank among voters’ leading issues, and polls find broad concern that tariffs on Canadian goods will hurt Maine. That creates a potential liability for Collins, although she has also criticized the tariffs.
Stable
Drawn from 3 articles
04
Collins’s advantages meet a tighter crossover path
Collins retains a record of outperforming the state’s partisan lean and attracting crossover voters, but reporting describes a narrower Democratic and independent coalition. Jackson is trying to draw former Collins supporters by focusing on Trump and her record.
Stable
Drawn from 3 articles
Key Numbers
45% percent
likely voters supporting Susan Collins
Maine · August 31 through September 6, 2026
“In Maine, 48% of likely voters back Jackson and 45% support Collins. The result is within the survey's margin of sampling error.”
CNN and 5 other articles
48% percent
likely voters supporting Troy Jackson
Maine · August 31–September 6, 2026
“In Maine, 48% of likely voters support Jackson and 45% support Collins, also within the margin of sampling error.”
CNN and 3 other articles
plus or minus 3.7 percentage points
margin of sampling error
Maine poll
“In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican incumbent Susan Collins 48% to 45%, a result within the poll's margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. About 18% of likely voters say they could change their minds or have not yet chosen a candidate.”
CNN and 2 other articles
880 likely voters
Maine poll sample size
August 31–September 6, 2026
“The CNN polls of Maine and Michigan likely voters were conducted online and by phone from August 31 through September 6, 2026. Results among 880 likely voters in Maine have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points; the margin is 4.1 points among 843 likely voters in Michigan.”
CNN and 2 other articles
five points
Jackson's lead over Collins in the UMass Lowell/YouGov poll
Maine · Aug. 28-Sept. 14
“In another poll by UMass Lowell/YouGov, also published Sept. 24 but taken Aug. 28-Sept. 14, Jackson leads by five points.”
The Kansas City Star and 1 other article
Contested Issue
1 open dispute
Did late-September polling show Susan Collins or Troy Jackson ahead in the Maine Senate race?
Late-September poll reporting produced opposing point estimates: the New York Times/Siena survey put Collins ahead by three, while other surveys, including UMass Lowell/YouGov and UNH, put Jackson ahead. The results are close and subject to polling uncertainty, but the reported leaders differ.
Collins ahead in Times/Siena
3 articles · across 3 publications
The New York Times/Siena poll found Collins leading Jackson 49% to 46% among likely Maine voters.
Jackson ahead in other surveys
3 articles · across 3 publications
Other surveys reported Jackson ahead, including UMass Lowell/YouGov and UNH results.
Looking Back
68 Day Timeline
Articles published over time. Hover any bar for the period and its article count.
Jul 22
Aug 3
Aug 13
Aug 25
Sep 4
Sep 16
Sep 26
The Story So Far
No material change
No material change: the supplied polling reports reiterate the already established picture of a close race with conflicting leads.
Previously
Polls show a close contest between Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson, but do not establish a consistent leader: a CNN-SSRS survey put Jackson ahead by three points within its margin of error, while later polls ranged from a Collins lead to a Jackson lead. Economic conditions and cost of living rank prominently among voter concerns, alongside views on tariffs and abortion. The mixed polling leaves the state of the contest uncertain rather than pointing to a clear shift in either candidate’s standing.
History
09/29/2026
The polling coverage adds voter disapproval of Donald Trump as a prominent finding and gives new context for Graham Platner’s withdrawal, noting allegations he denies. The close-race picture remains unchanged.
09/28/2026
Later September polling and a narrowing RealClearPolitics average weaken the earlier impression of a small Jackson edge: the race is now framed as having no consistent polling leader. Reporting also newly highlights negative views of the Dobbs decision.
A Fox News survey conducted August 6 to 10 found Troy Jackson narrowly leading Susan Collins among Maine voters as immigration concerns intensified after a Biddeford shooting.
On July 21, a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll found Troy Jackson 49% and Susan Collins 46% among likely Maine voters for a November Senate matchup.
University of New Hampshire polling conducted July 15-20 shows Troy Jackson slightly ahead of Susan Collins in a hypothetical Maine Senate matchup and leading Democrats in primary testing.
Fox News found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48 percent to 46 percent from August 6-10 among Maine voters, with the result within the margin of error.
Three polling organizations released conflicting results Thursday in the Maine 2026 U.S. Senate race, showing Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Susan Collins in a close contest.
Fox News found Democratic nominee Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 48% to 46% in Maine on August 6-10, intensifying competition before the November 3 election.
During the 2026 Maine Senate campaign, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins narrowly in recent polls, making Maine a pivotal Democratic target.
Troy Jackson narrowly leads Senator Susan Collins in Decision Desk HQ's Maine polling average for the 2026 U.S. Senate election, while both candidates have roughly equal forecasted winning chances.
Decision Desk HQ shows Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 47%-45% in Maine's 2026 Senate race, with both candidates near equal winning odds.
A CNN/SSRS poll released September 9 found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
CNN and SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson narrowly leading Republican incumbent Susan Collins among likely voters in Maine, with economic concerns and abortion rights influencing the contest.
CNN ranked Maine second among 2026 Senate contests most likely to change party control after Troy Jackson narrowly led Susan Collins in a poll of Maine likely voters.
CNN/SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins 48 percent to 45 percent among Maine voters surveyed August 31 through September 6, 2026.
9/9/2026 • Polling & Race Ratings • General
CNN / Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy, Edward Wu77
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among Maine likely voters in a September 2026 poll, leaving the Senate contest statistically tied.
CNN-SSRS found Troy Jackson narrowly leading Susan Collins in Maine and Abdul El-Sayed narrowly leading Mike Rogers in Michigan from August 31 to September 6, 2026.
In Maine, Troy Jackson is challenging Susan Collins in the 2026 Senate race, with a CNN poll showing a small Jackson lead amid limited crossover support.
The New York Times and Siena University reported Sept. 24 that Susan Collins led Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters in Maine's 2026 Senate race.
A New York Times/Siena poll conducted September 15-22 found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49%-46% among likely voters in Maine, within the margin of error.
CNN/SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by three points among likely Maine voters in an August 31 to September 6 poll, within the margin of error.
In 2026, Maine pollsters and political analysts reported that tariff tensions with Canada and affordability concerns were endangering Susan Collins's reelection prospects.
University of New Hampshire polling in Maine before Democratic nominee selection found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 49% to 46% among likely voters.
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are targeting independent, undecided, and split-ticket voters in Wells, Auburn, Lewiston, Gorham, and York County during Maine's 2026 Senate contest.
Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are competing in Maine's 2026 Senate race, where voter interviews in Wells, Auburn, Lewiston and Gorham show Trump's influence reshaping crossover support.
The New York Times and Siena University reported September 24 that a poll of likely Maine voters showed Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% in Maine's 2026 Senate contest.
The New York Times and Siena College found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49%-46% among likely Maine voters in a September 15-22 poll conducted in Maine.
Quantus Insights found Republican Senator Susan Collins narrowly leading Democratic challenger Troy Jackson among likely Maine voters in a September 2026 Senate race survey.
CNN reported that Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican incumbent Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters weeks before the November 3 midterm elections.
CNN/SSRS found Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 48% to 45% among 880 likely Maine voters surveyed August 31 through September 6.
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters in a 2026 Senate race shaped by negative views of Collins, Donald Trump, and economic conditions.
CNN and SSRS found no clear leader in Maine's 2026 Senate contest after surveying 880 likely voters statewide from August 31 through September 6, 2026.
CNN and SSRS found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among likely Maine voters in a poll conducted August 31 through September 6 and released September 9.
In late September, polls of Maine's 2026 U.S. Senate race gave conflicting results, with Susan Collins narrowly ahead in some surveys and Troy Jackson leading in another.
CNN found Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins 48% to 45% among 880 Maine voters as both campaigns intensified advertising aimed at independents and persuadable voters.
Susan Collins-led polling in Maine followed Graham Platner removal and Troy Jackson replacement, with support reported among working-class voters and non-college-degree voters in Central and Northern Maine.
On September 24, the New York Times and Siena University reported that Susan Collins led Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely Maine voters in a poll conducted in Maine.
A September 15-22 New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found Susan Collins leading Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters in Maine, within the survey's 4.9-point margin of error.
Susan Collins is challenging for a sixth Senate term against Troy Jackson in Maine, where immigration enforcement and economic concerns are shaping the 2026 contest.
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