Last Update: 08/01/2026 at 1:00 PM EST

Mid-day Briefing: Climate

Friday, July 10, 2026 · 11:51 AM EDT

Key developments

AL JAZEERA

Western Europe posts hottest June on record

The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said Western Europe recorded its hottest June, averaging 20.74°C, more than 3°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Al Jazeera reported the late-June heatwave broke national records, exposed more than 410 million Europeans to temperatures above 35°C, and coincided with the highest June sea-surface temperature outside polar regions. Reuters reported Germany’s Robert Koch Institute estimated 5,120 heat-related deaths by July 9, while authorities in France, Belgium, Spain and the Netherlands reported more than 4,700 excess deaths during the June 20–28 heatwave.

Why it matters

The data show climate-amplified heatwaves are translating into large mortality burdens and simultaneous marine, drought and wildfire risks.

Sources & driving stories

WEATHER.COM

NOAA sees El Niño persisting into 2027

Weather.com’s Jonathan Belles reported NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now gives El Niño a 97% chance of lasting through early spring 2027 and an 81% chance of becoming very strong during October–December. Sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific are already about 1.2°C above average, with atmospheric responses beginning to appear. Forecast models diverge, but ECMWF guidance suggests anomalies could exceed 3°C as early as September, potentially putting the event among the largest in records dating to 1950.

Why it matters

A very strong El Niño would reshape global drought, flood, hurricane and temperature risks and could contribute to new global heat records in 2026 or 2027.

Sources & driving stories

WEATHER.COM · Jonathan Belles

Weather.com coverage
THE GUARDIAN

Pacific gray whale strandings surge sharply

The Guardian reported Pacific gray whale deaths are rising in what environmental groups call a catastrophic mortality event linked mainly to food loss as sea ice declines around Alaska. The population is estimated to have fallen from about 20,000 whales in 2019 to fewer than 13,000 in 2026, while 146 carcasses were counted in the first half of 2026, compared with an annual average of 43 strandings from 2006 to 2023. Environmental groups have petitioned NOAA to relist the species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, with a response expected in about a month.

Why it matters

The die-off is a concrete signal of Arctic ecosystem disruption and could trigger renewed federal protections affecting shipping, drilling and conservation policy.

Sources & driving stories

Worth noting

WORTH NOTING

Trump backs coal and climate skeptics

The Guardian’s Andrew Witherspoon reported the administration canceled eight offshore wind projects and announced $625 million for coal, while Climate Power and Climate Depot reported Matthew Wielicki was put in charge of the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

WORTH NOTING

World Bank funds Pakistan grid

The World Bank approved $375.9 million for Pakistan transmission upgrades intended to bring 640 MW of curtailed wind onto the grid, support 491 MW of planned private renewables and avoid about 832,500 tons of CO2 annually.

WORTH NOTING

NASA tests Arctic ice sensors

NASA JPL reported scientists flew about 50 hours over Arctic sea ice in April 2026 to validate airborne and satellite measurements for improved sea-ice thickness estimates and future spacecraft missions.

Still unclear

OPEN QUESTION

Will El Niño reach record strength?

NOAA assigns high odds to a very strong event, but model guidance diverges on whether Pacific temperatures will exceed previous record anomalies.

OPEN QUESTION

Are heat-health plans keeping pace?

The latest European mortality estimates suggest adaptation, warning systems and urban cooling measures may still be lagging behind accelerating heat risk.