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Key developments
Copernicus reports Western Europe’s hottest June
Al Jazeera reported that the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service found Western Europe had its hottest June on record, averaging 20.74C, more than 3C above the 1991–2020 baseline. The late-June heatwave broke national records, exposed 410 million Europeans to temperatures above 35C, and was linked to thousands of deaths, mainly in France, Spain and Belgium. Copernicus also reported the highest June sea-surface temperature outside polar regions, while Grist’s Sachi Kitajima Mulkey reported nearly 40% of the global ocean was in marine heatwave conditions.
Why it matters
The combined land-and-ocean records show heat risk escalating simultaneously for public health, wildfire, drought, marine ecosystems and coastal weather extremes.
Sources & driving stories
AL JAZEERA
Al Jazeera coverageGRIST · Sachi Kitajima Mulkey
Grist coverageNOAA sees El Niño nearing historic strength
Weather.com’s Jonathan Belles reported that NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now finds eastern and central equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures about 1.2C above average, with the atmosphere beginning to respond. NOAA puts the chance of El Niño persisting through early spring 2027 at 97% and the chance of a very strong event during October–December at 81%. Fortune reported the event formed only last month and has already reached moderate strength, with likely effects including suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity, wetter southern U.S. winters, warmer northern U.S. and Canadian winters, and heightened global heat-record risk.
Why it matters
A very strong El Niño can rapidly reshape global drought, flood, heat and cyclone outlooks while adding a temporary warming pulse on top of long-term climate change.
Sources & driving stories
WEATHER.COM · Jonathan Belles
Weather.com coverageFORTUNE
Fortune coverageCryosphere overshoot risks move onto COP31 agenda
State of the Planet’s Amy Imdieke reported that UNFCCC subsidiary-body talks in Bonn examined what happens if global temperatures exceed 1.5C and later decline. Researchers previewing forthcoming UNEP-affiliated cryosphere overshoot findings warned that damage depends on the magnitude and duration of overshoot, with risks including multi-meter sea-level rise, centuries of continued glacier loss, Antarctic sea-ice decline, marine heatwaves, ocean freshening and acidification. Delegates are preparing decisions for COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, while current national commitments still point to roughly 2.7C–2.9C of warming by 2100.
Why it matters
The findings challenge the idea that later cooling can reverse near-term overshoot, especially for glaciers, ice sheets and sea-level rise.
Sources & driving stories
STATE OF THE PLANET · Amy Imdieke
State of the Planet coverageWorth noting
WORTH NOTING
Climate skeptic tapped for U.S. assessment
Eos’s Grace van Deelen and Climate Power report Matthew Wielicki is heading the U.S. Global Change Research Program and National Climate Assessment process after prior assessment researchers were dismissed.
WORTH NOTING
COP31 president pushes electrification target
Carbon Brief’s Simon Evans reported that COP31 president-designate Murat Kurum is promoting a “35 by 35” target for electricity to supply 35% of global final energy by 2035.
WORTH NOTING
World Bank backs Pakistan grid upgrades
The World Bank approved $375.9 million for Pakistan transmission upgrades intended to reduce outages, integrate 640MW of curtailed wind and support about 491MW of planned private renewables.
Still unclear
OPEN QUESTION
Can forecasts reconcile El Niño and ocean heat?
NOAA expects a very strong El Niño to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, but record ocean heat and widespread marine heatwaves are also amplifying heat, humidity and storm risks in multiple basins.
OPEN QUESTION
Will U.S. climate assessments stay credible?
New leadership for the National Climate Assessment could affect a congressionally mandated evidence base used by governments, courts and planners to assess climate risk.