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Key developments
Analysts warn El Niño could shock food prices
The Guardian reports economists are warning that a potentially extreme 2026–27 El Niño could drive a global food-price shock lasting into 2028. NOAA estimates a 63% chance sea-surface temperatures will exceed 2C above normal later in 2026; Goldman Sachs estimates global food commodity prices could rise 15.8%, while UniCredit says an extreme scenario could cut global agricultural output by 14.3%. Drought risks are highlighted for southern Africa, northern South America, India and southeast Asia, with flooding risks in parts of southern South America.
Why it matters
A strong El Niño would compound existing inflation, supply-chain stress and climate-related crop volatility, with lower-income countries most exposed.
Sources & driving stories
THE GUARDIAN
The Guardian coverageClimate science critic appointed to USGCRP
The Spokesman-Review reports the Trump administration has appointed Matthew M. Wielicki, a former University of Alabama geochemist and public critic of mainstream climate science, to lead the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The congressionally mandated program produces the National Climate Assessment, whose 2023 edition documented worsening human-driven warming across every U.S. region. Energy Secretary Chris Wright defended the appointment, while David Doniger of NRDC and climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe criticized Wielicki as unqualified and hostile to established climate science.
Why it matters
The appointment could affect the direction, credibility and legal execution of the federal government’s flagship climate-risk assessment.
Sources & driving stories
THE SPOKESMAN-REVIEW
The Spokesman-Review coverageStudy models cloud brightening against El Niño
Mother Jones’ Molly Taft reports on a new Science Advances study examining whether marine cloud brightening could reduce the strength and global impacts of future El Niño events. Researchers used the 2019–2020 Australian bushfires as a natural analogue, noting that nearly 1 million metric tons of smoke affected atmospheric reflectivity and was previously linked to a rare triple-dip La Niña. Modeling applied to two historical El Niño events suggested reduced sunlight over the Pacific could have weakened those events, though experts warned real-world deployment remains scientifically uncertain and politically risky.
Why it matters
The study adds momentum to targeted geoengineering research while underscoring unresolved risks around models, governance and unintended climate impacts.
Sources & driving stories
MOTHER JONES · Molly Taft
Mother Jones coverageWorth noting
WORTH NOTING
Cyprus plans centralized battery storage
Cyprus Mail’s Elias Hazou reports Cyprus is moving toward 120 MW of centralized battery capacity at transmission substations in Nicosia, Paphos and Larnaca, with operation targeted for summer 2027 to reduce PV curtailment and improve grid flexibility.
WORTH NOTING
Southern California wetlands monitoring begins
Mavens Notebook’s Mike Peña reports UC Santa Cruz and CARB have begun continuous CO2 and methane monitoring at Los Cerritos Wetlands and Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge to close a Southern California data gap in wetland carbon accounting.
WORTH NOTING
Rooftop solar eased heat-wave demand
New England News Collaborative reports an Acadia Center analysis found rooftop solar supplied about 25% of New England electric demand at times during the June 28–July 4 heat wave and helped avoid at least $130 million in wholesale energy costs.
Still unclear
OPEN QUESTION
How severe will the 2026–27 El Niño become?
Food-price impacts, regional drought and flood exposure, and potential inflation effects depend on whether Pacific warming reaches the extreme scenarios analysts are modeling.
OPEN QUESTION
Can USGCRP maintain scientific credibility?
The new leadership choice raises questions about how the next National Climate Assessment will handle attribution science, peer review and statutory obligations.