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Key developments
Europe heatwave excess deaths topped 10,000
Yale E360 and The Times of India reported that EuroMOMO logged 10,650 excess deaths across 27 European countries during the week of June 22-28, when a record late-June heatwave peaked across France, Spain, Britain and other countries. More than 9,000 deaths were among people aged 65 and older, and EuroMOMO said France and Belgium had very high excess mortality. Separate England-and-Wales attribution work found thousands of heat-related deaths, with a large share linked to additional warming from human-caused climate change.
Why it matters
The figures provide near-real-time mortality evidence that climate-amplified heat is already producing mass casualties in high-income Europe, especially among older adults.
Sources & driving stories
YALE E360
Yale E360 coverageTHE TIMES OF INDIA
The Times of India coverageForecasts flag potentially record El Niño
Zeke Hausfather in The Climate Brink reported that July 2026 seasonal forecasts put the developing 2026-27 El Niño on a possible record-setting path, with a model-weighted median Niño 3.4 peak anomaly of 3.6C. Across 667 ensemble members from 14 models, 91% exceed the 2015-16 record, while a relative ONI analysis still gives the event a 77% chance of setting a new record. VTDigger’s Grace Bertrand separately reported NOAA Climate Prediction Center guidance giving the event a 63% chance of becoming very strong, though Vermont and broader Northeast impacts remain hard to isolate.
Why it matters
A record or near-record El Niño would reshape global temperature odds and regional rainfall, heat and flood risks, with the strongest global temperature effects likely lagging into 2027.
Sources & driving stories
THE CLIMATE BRINK · Zeke Hausfather
The Climate Brink coverageVTDIGGER · Grace Bertrand
VTDigger coverageGlobal energy emissions hit new record
OilPrice.com reported that the Energy Institute’s 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy, produced with Ember and in collaboration with KPMG and Kearney, found global CO2-equivalent emissions rose from 40.7 billion metric tons in 2024 to a record 41.0 billion metric tons in 2025. Renewable electricity generation increased by roughly 861 TWh, enough to cover net global electricity growth, but total emissions still rose because of transport fuels, industrial activity, methane, flaring, fossil-fuel production and regional fuel shifts. North America accounted for 47.1% of the increase, with U.S. emissions up about 147 million metric tons as coal-fired generation rose roughly 91 TWh.
Why it matters
The new data show clean-power growth is still not translating into absolute emissions cuts when demand rises and fossil use persists outside, and sometimes within, the power sector.
Sources & driving stories
OILPRICE.COM
OilPrice.com coverageWorth noting
WORTH NOTING
BP role in wedges exposed
Maddie Stone in Sierra Club summarized a ProPublica and Drilled investigation reporting that BP funded Princeton’s Carbon Mitigation Initiative and exchanged drafts and wording on the influential 2004 climate “wedges” framework, helping elevate carbon capture and continued fossil-fuel use in climate policy debates.
WORTH NOTING
Data-center emissions pressure grows
ESG Dive reported Microsoft’s fiscal 2025 emissions rose 25% to 20.29 million metric tons CO2e amid AI data-center expansion and a renewable-accounting change, while Rice News reported a study projecting U.S. data-center power capacity could rise from 40 GW in 2025 to 169 GW by 2030.
WORTH NOTING
Colorado gas-rights amendment advances
Maya McDaniel at Inside Climate News reported that Advance Colorado submitted Initiative 177 for the November ballot, seeking a state constitutional right to sell natural gas that critics say could undermine building-electrification and emissions rules.
Still unclear
OPEN QUESTION
Can Europe adapt before the next compound heatwave?
The late-June mortality spike was concentrated among older adults, and a potentially very strong El Niño could add further near-term heat and emergency-management stress.
OPEN QUESTION
Will clean power outpace total energy demand?
The 2025 emissions record shows renewable electricity can cover net generation growth while overall emissions still rise from coal rebounds, transport, industry, methane and flaring.