Last Update: 04/05/2026 at 2:50 PM EST
Climate Models Raise Food Crisis Risk
Coverage from VegOut, Informed Comment, and others
Articles
5
Latest Article
03/23
Active Days
37
Executive Summary
New models warn climate change could drive major food shortfalls by 2040 and expose over 1 billion people to severe food crises by 2100
- Climate-food models project 8 to 14 percent global caloric shortfalls by 2040 under 2 to 2.5 C warming
- The United States, EU, Australia, and Canada appear in food stress scenarios once focused on the Global South
- Models combine climate projections with trade flows, soil degradation, water depletion, and population growth
- High emissions could expose more than 1.1 billion people to at least one severe food crisis by 2100
- More than 600 million children are projected to face severe food crises under high emissions
- A sustainable low emissions pathway could cut exposure by about 780 million people
- Hotspots are concentrated in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and parts of Asia and eastern Africa
Quick Facts
- What: Projected food shortfalls and severe food crises under warming
- Where: Wealthy nations plus vulnerable regions across Africa and Asia
- Why: Warming, water stress, soil degradation, trade shocks, and population growth
- Who: Climate and agricultural researchers using integrated food models
- When: By 2040 and increasingly through 2100
Coverage Timeline: 37 Days
Featured Article
Quantitative ecologist Giovanni Strona reports in a 2020s study that climate change could expose over 1.1 billion people worldwide to severe food crises by 2100.
Additional Articles
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Researchers project 2040 caloric shortfalls in wealthy regions due to climate, trade, and land use.
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IIED analysis using a food security index finds climate-driven extreme weather will reduce food availability and nutrition at 1.5C and more at 2C, disproportionately affecting sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia.
A quantitative ecologist used AI with NOAA and Climate Hazards Centre data to project that high emissions could expose over 1.1 billion people worldwide to severe food crises by 2100, especially in eastern Africa.
A study using an AI model projects that climate change could expose over 1 billion people to severe food crises by 2100, with reductions under deep emissions cuts.