Last Update: 06/03/2026 at 4:25 AM EST
El Nino Warming and Record Heat
Coverage from Nature, Inside Climate News, and others
Articles
70
Latest Article
06/02
Active Days
103
Executive Summary
Recent reporting and research link a prolonged La Niña, a shift toward El Niño, and ongoing greenhouse-gas warming to rising global temperatures and record-heat risk through 2030. NOAA has also revised its El Niño/La Niña labeling to reflect a warmer baseline in the tropical Pacific.
Key Points
- A prolonged 2020-2023 La Niña is repeatedly described as having stored heat that was later released as conditions shifted toward El Niño.
- NOAA has updated El Niño/La Niña labeling to use a relative tropical index because the baseline ocean state has warmed.
- Researchers attribute most of the recent rise in energy imbalance and temperature spike to the combination of human-caused warming and the ENSO phase shift.
- Near-term forecasts point to El Niño emerging in 2026, with a meaningful chance of adding to record-warm global temperatures in 2027.
- WMO outlooks and NOAA-linked projections frame 2026-2030 as a period with a high probability of new global heat records.
- Regional impacts remain consistent across the material: altered rainfall, drought, heat, and hurricane patterns tied to El Niño conditions.
- The evidence base mixes a peer-reviewed attribution study with operational forecasts, making the topic both scientifically grounded and forward-looking.
Featured Article
NOAA forecasts El Nino forming between June and August 2026, globally increasing temperatures and shifting regional weather.
Coverage Timeline: 103 Days
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Additional Articles
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Nature reports NOAA forecasts a likely El Nino between May and July, with higher chances by December, as tropical Pacific wind dynamics remain the main uncertainty.
Fredi Otto and other researchers warn that a developing El Nino could amplify extreme heat, droughts, floods, and wildfire risk this year under a human-warmed baseline.
Forecast centers project a strong El Nino may develop later in the year, potentially reaching super-event thresholds and increasing global drought and flood risks.
The World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office forecast high odds of repeated 1.5C Paris threshold exceedances between 2026 and 2030, with Arctic amplification and regional drought and heat risks.
World Meteorological Organization forecasts high-likelihood El Niño formation before November, with UN officials warning of heat and extreme rain and drought risk.
WMO and the UK Met Office project near-certainty of global temperature records between 2026 and 2030, citing rising CO2 and an El Niño expected late 2026 to early 2027.
James Hansen and colleagues forecast 2026 as the warmest year on record as El Nino likely replaces La Nina, with uncertainty from the UK Met Office.
NOAA assessed a 61% chance of El Nino development on April 9, with potential for strong event impacts on monsoons, hurricanes, drought risk, and temperature records.
WMO and EU Copernicus scientists report record 2025 warmth and hazards across Europe while forecasting a strong El Niño that may elevate temperatures through 2027.
Copernicus Climate Change Service, via ECMWF, said April sea-surface temperatures nearly matched 2024 records as developing El Niño raises risk of extreme weather and a possible hottest year in 2027.
Climate and agriculture experts warn that super El Nino and human-induced warming will increase extreme heat and drought risks, damaging harvests and worsening food insecurity.
World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office forecasts from United Nations climate projections predict frequent 1.5 C threshold exceedance and Arctic overheating through 2030.
Copernicus reported April as the joint third-warmest month globally, citing reduced sea ice and widespread marine heatwaves tied to an emerging El Niño.
NOAA released Atlantic and eastern and central Pacific hurricane outlooks, forecasting below-average Atlantic activity and above-average eastern Pacific activity based on developing El Niño conditions.
NOAA officials and forecasters report a potentially historic El Niño forming in the Pacific, with South Florida hurricane and coastal flooding risks shaped by wind shear and sea-level rise.
NOAA says El Nino may form between July and September, with forecast uncertainty and potential for higher global temperatures.
Forecast centers warn that a developing El Nino this year could raise global temperatures and intensify extreme weather across the United States and adjacent regions.
The World Meteorological Organization and the UK Met Office project 2026 to 2030 exceedances of the Paris 1.5 C warming limit, with strong Arctic amplification and higher drought and wildfire risks.
Copernicus and NOAA forecast El Niño development after near-record April sea-surface temperatures, raising the probability of very strong warming during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
NOAA forecasters expect El Nino to emerge by mid 2026, affecting global weather patterns.
NOAA forecasts El Nino onset by mid 2026 with 62 percent probability, signaling potential global weather shifts.
NOAA forecasts El Nino to emerge this summer globally with regional weather changes through 2027.
NOAA forecasters project El Niño to develop between June and August 2026, influencing global temperatures and regional rainfall through 2027.
April Temperatures Hit Joint Third-Highest on Record Globally As Chance of Very Strong El Niño Grows
Copernicus reported record ocean warmth in April 2026 and reduced Antarctic sea ice, while NOAA said 2026 is virtually certain to be among the 10 warmest years.
NOAA forecasts a likely strong El Niño this summer that could raise global temperatures and alter regional weather through 2027.
WMO forecasts an 80% chance of El Niño developing by August and a 90% chance persisting through November, driven by warm tropical Pacific waters.
NOAA issues El Nino Watch with 62 percent odds of formation June through August, signaling potential global temperature rise and shifts in hurricane season.
WMO projections forecast 2026 to 2030 temperatures likely exceeding the Paris 1.5C limit, with faster Arctic warming and increased Amazon drought and wildfire risk through 2030.
NOAA reports El Nino development with 62 percent odds for June to August.
NOAA reports a 50-60 percent chance of El Nino developing from July to September, potentially lifting global temperatures toward record highs.
NOAA warns of an El Nino watch, raising the likelihood of warmer global temperatures and altered Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons, starting in the second half of the year.
NOAA forecasts El Nino development between June and August in the Pacific basin, with global temperature and weather pattern implications.
NOAA updates El Nino labeling this year in the United States to reflect tropical warming and influence global temperature records.
Japanese researchers and U.S. meteorologists say a 2020-2023 triple-dip La Nina and revised NOAA indexing contributed to a global temperature jump beginning in 2023.
Researchers forecast a strong El Nino by late 2026 globally, with temperatures elevated in 2027.
NOAA issues El Nino Watch with six month outlook predicting El Nino formation between June and August across the Pacific and Americas.
University of Tokyo researchers and NOAA link a prolonged La Nina and an updated El Nino index to a 2022 energy imbalance increase, raising global temperatures worldwide in 2022-2025.
NOAA projects El Nino development with 50-60 percent likelihood in July through September, with global temperature and rainfall implications.
NOAA forecasts El Nino now
NOAA projects El Nino development between July and September; global temperatures could rise temporarily worldwide.
NOAA forecasts El Nino formation between July and September worldwide, increasing temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns.
James Hansen and coauthors say El Nino forecasts for 2026-27 can improve climate dynamics understanding using upper-300-meter ocean heat content metrics.
Japanese researchers and NOAA scientists report that a prolonged La Nina, followed by an El Nino transition and greenhouse gas forcing, increased Earth's energy imbalance and global temperatures in 2022-2025.
Scientists attribute higher global temperatures from 2023 to 2025 to extended La Nina and shifting El Nino cycles amid ongoing warming.
Forecasts project a possible El Nino in 2026-2027 while ocean heat acceleration and higher climate sensitivity are linked to faster sea-surface warming.
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Forecast models estimate a 62% chance El Nino develops this summer and persists through year end, increasing drought and heat risks and rainfall anomalies across multiple regions.
ECMWF forecast data project central equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures could reach around 3 C above average late in the year, raising risk of a super El Nino with broad climate impacts.
Asia is facing forecast Super El Nino conditions that could intensify drought, heat, hydropower shortfalls, grid demand spikes, and related health risks this summer.
Copernicus and NOAA forecast El Niño formation in summer 2026 with persistence into 2026-end or 2027 after near-record March sea surface warming.
US Climate Prediction Center forecasts increased El Niño formation risk by late July, with potential strong-to-very-strong conditions affecting drought, flooding, energy, and food systems across multiple regions.
NOAA reported La Niña ended in 2024-2025 and said El Niño is likely to develop later in 2026, affecting hurricane seasons and winter precipitation planning.
NOAA forecast released May 14 predicts El Nino emergence with an 82% chance in two to three months and possible persistence through winter 2026-27.
NOAA and forecast models project higher odds of a super El Niño forming later in 2025, with global temperature spikes and regional rainfall shifts expected through winter.
World Meteorological Organization forecasts mid-year El Nino development, warning of higher global temperature and rainfall extremes as Pacific subsurface heat intensifies.
World Meteorological Organisation reporting says a potential El Nino developing over New Zealand winter could raise global temperatures and reshape regional extremes.
NOAA forecast updates and Columbia University assessments in the equatorial Pacific indicate rising odds of El Niño development between June and January.
World Meteorological Organization provides ENSO outlook for March-May 2026 with rising El Nino risk worldwide.
El Nino forecast develops by summer 2026, affecting weather and temperatures worldwide.
Meteorologists predict El Nino may emerge between June and August 2026, potentially raising global temperatures and altering hurricane activity.
NOAA forecasts El Nino development with 62 percent odds for June through August, potentially influencing global temperatures and the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.
Meteorologists warn of a potential super El Nino, forecast to emerge in coming months, affecting weather across the United States, Canada, and the Pacific Rim.
CPC forecasters project El Nino formation by summer worldwide, with rising temperatures and impacts on crops and drought risk.
WMO reports El Nino returns in 2026, with global temperature implications and regional flood risks across Peru, Ecuador, and adjacent South American regions.
WMO and international monitoring centers report El Nino returning in 2026 worldwide, with potential global temperature rise and rainfall pattern shifts.
NOAA forecasts El Nino development by June to August with global temperature and hurricane season implications.
NOAA forecasts El Nino development in July-September with 50-60 percent probability worldwide, potentially raising global temperatures.
WMO reports El Nino and La Nina dynamics tied to record 2024 temperatures and near term forecasts through 2026.
WMO warned in 2025 that record excess heat driven by greenhouse gases is rapidly warming oceans and intensifying extreme events, with El Niño expected to increase temperatures into 2026 and 2027.
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NOAA forecasts El Nino forming in summer and persisting through 2026 across global regions.