Low-Mineral Energy Transition Pathways

Summary

• Recent reports repeatedly argue that a Paris-aligned energy transition does not require a large increase in mineral extraction if demand is managed well.
• Public transport expansion, recycling, and circular-economy measures are the main levers presented for reducing mineral demand.
• Battery and technology choices are treated as important variables that can materially change future needs for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and other minerals.
• Deep sea mining is presented as a major governance and environmental risk, with strong emphasis on avoiding it where possible.
• The material links mineral strategy to protection of ecosystems and Indigenous lands, making land-use and rights issues part of the transition debate.
• The evidence is mostly scenario-based and normative rather than implementation-based, so the core question is policy adoption rather than technical feasibility.