Last Update: 06/03/2026 at 6:25 AM EST

Mid-day Briefing: Climate

Monday, May 18, 2026 · 11:48 AM EDT

Key developments

NEW SCIENTIST

Thwaites eastern ice shelf nears breakaway

New Scientist reported that Thwaites Glacier's Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf in West Antarctica is fracturing around its pinning point and grounding line as warmer ocean circulation thins the shelf. Satellite analysis cited in the report says the flow of ice once buttressed by the shelf increased about 33% between January 2020 and January 2026, with the shelf's flow rate tripling to just over 2,000 metres per year and accelerating further in recent months. Researchers say the shelf is already losing much of its buttressing function, though the exact timing of final breakaway remains uncertain.

Why it matters

Loss of this ice shelf could accelerate Thwaites' contribution to sea-level rise and further destabilize West Antarctica.

Sources & driving stories

EARTH

April warmth and El Niño odds rise

Earth's Max Bruneau reported that Copernicus ranked April 2026 as the joint third-warmest April on record, at 1.43C above pre-industrial levels. Sea surface temperatures stayed near record highs, Antarctic sea ice ran about 10% below average for the month, and the Bellingshausen Sea remained virtually ice-free. NOAA said 2026 is virtually certain to finish among the 10 warmest years on record, while scientists said the ocean pattern points to an emerging El Niño later this year that could amplify drought and flood risk.

Why it matters

The data show persistent global heat and a possible shift toward stronger climate-driven weather extremes later in 2026.

Sources & driving stories

EARTH · Max Bruneau

Earth coverage
THE GUARDIAN

UK data centres plan gas generation

The Guardian's Aisha Down reported that more than 100 UK datacentre projects are in the National Grid queue and many are turning to gas because grid connections are slow. Future Energy Networks said it has received more than 100 gas-connection requests from datacentre operators over the past two years, totaling more than 15 terawatt-hours a year. National Energy System Operator officials warned that unabated gas-backed datacentres could complicate the UK's Clean Power 2030 target, while Ofgem said demand-connection reforms are under review.

Why it matters

AI infrastructure demand is already pushing some developers toward fossil-fuel power and raising fresh questions about UK decarbonization targets.

Sources & driving stories

THE GUARDIAN · Aisha Down

The Guardian coverage

Worth noting

WORTH NOTING

Utah hyperscale data center backlash

The proposed Box Elder County project would span 40,000 acres, need 9 gigawatts of power, and is drawing opposition over water, pollution, and Great Salt Lake impacts.

WORTH NOTING

New Jersey shore rules face challenge

State resilience rules requiring some coastal homes to be built four feet above FEMA standards are now facing county, legislative, and industry efforts to block them.

Still unclear

OPEN QUESTION

How soon does TEIS fully detach?

The shelf is already fracturing and losing buttressing, but the timing of a final break is still unclear.

OPEN QUESTION

Will UK grid reform curb gas-backed datacentres?

More than 100GW of projects are waiting for connections, and current delays are pushing operators toward unabated gas.