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Last Update: 08/01/2026 at 1:00 PM EST
El Niño Could Return in 2026, Raising Global Temperatures
Coverage from The Washington Post, New Scientist, and others
Articles
51
Active Days
155
The Topic
A rapidly strengthening El Niño in the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest events in the instrumental record, with forecasts extending its influence through early 2027. The event is expected to raise global temperatures and alter rainfall, drought, wildfire, and hurricane patterns across multiple regions, while adding stress to already-warm oceans and vulnerable marine ecosystems. Forecasts remain uncertain because the projected intensity exceeds previously observed or reliably predicted conditions, and climate change is altering the background state against which El Niño impacts are measured.
First Article: 02/20/26
Latest Article: 07/24/26
Summary
- Pacific Ocean temperatures are rising rapidly, and several forecasts project a strong to potentially record-breaking El Niño during late 2026.
- The event could increase the likelihood of a new global temperature record in 2026 or 2027.
- Expected regional effects include drier conditions and higher fire risk in parts of Australia, Indonesia, South and Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean.
- The southern United States and parts of western South America could see wetter conditions, while North American impacts are expected to become clearer during fall and winter.
- El Niño may suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through stronger wind shear while increasing storm activity in the eastern and central Pacific.
- Marine heat waves could intensify stress on coral reefs, seagrass, fisheries, and marine mammals, including below the ocean surface.
- Model projections vary substantially, and the most extreme estimates have not previously been tested against an event of comparable magnitude.
History
This topic is new, but as new articles are added to it this area will summarize shifts, changes and expansions of the issues.
Featured
07-10-2026
Copernicus Climate Change Service and ECMWF forecasts in 2026 indicate a record-strong El Niño peaking in December 2026 and affecting global weather through 2027.
05-01-2026
James Hansen and colleagues forecast 2026 as the warmest year on record as El Nino likely replaces La Nina, with uncertainty from the UK Met Office.
07-24-2026
Carbon Brief updates El Niño-driven temperature forecasts for 2026-2027, increasing record-warmth odds and projecting the largest effects in 2027.
Timeline: 155 Days
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Additional Articles
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Colorado State University forecast a 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with reduced activity driven by El Nino, while major hurricane landfall probabilities remain elevated for the U.S. and Caribbean.
A 2026-27 El Niño forecast using 14 models projects record-strength warming in the Niño3.4 region, with major rainfall and wildfire risk implications.
Fourteen seasonal forecast models project a potentially record-strength 2026-27 El Niño, with NOAA indices suggesting a 77% chance of surpassing past records.
Late fall 2026 forecast models project a 2-in-3 chance of strong El Nino, with marine heat-wave risks highlighted across major ocean regions.
NOAA released Atlantic and eastern and central Pacific hurricane outlooks, forecasting below-average Atlantic activity and above-average eastern Pacific activity based on developing El Niño conditions.
Katherine Ricke and coauthors reported modeled marine cloud brightening effects on El Nino using Australian bushfire aerosol analogues, while warning about scientific and political risks.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts El Niño persistence into early spring 2027 and an 81% chance of a very strong event during October to December, with regional impacts and model spread on peak intensity.
NOAA assessed a 61% chance of El Nino development on April 9, with potential for strong event impacts on monsoons, hurricanes, drought risk, and temperature records.
WMO and EU Copernicus scientists report record 2025 warmth and hazards across Europe while forecasting a strong El Niño that may elevate temperatures through 2027.
NOAA forecasts an 81% chance that El Nino will become very strong by fall, with likely fall-winter drought, rainfall, and temperature impacts worldwide.
NOAA forecasters expect El Nino to emerge by mid 2026, affecting global weather patterns.
NOAA forecasts El Nino onset by mid 2026 with 62 percent probability, signaling potential global weather shifts.
Researchers forecast a strong El Nino by late 2026 globally, with temperatures elevated in 2027.
NOAA forecasts El Nino development between June and August in the Pacific basin, with global temperature and weather pattern implications.
NOAA reports El Nino development with 62 percent odds for June to August.
NOAA warns of an El Nino watch, raising the likelihood of warmer global temperatures and altered Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons, starting in the second half of the year.
NOAA issues El Nino Watch with 62 percent odds of formation June through August, signaling potential global temperature rise and shifts in hurricane season.
NOAA issues El Nino Watch with six month outlook predicting El Nino formation between June and August across the Pacific and Americas.
NOAA forecasts El Nino forming between June and August 2026, globally increasing temperatures and shifting regional weather.
NOAA forecasts El Nino to emerge this summer globally with regional weather changes through 2027.
NOAA forecasts a likely strong El Niño this summer that could raise global temperatures and alter regional weather through 2027.
NOAA forecasters project El Niño to develop between June and August 2026, influencing global temperatures and regional rainfall through 2027.
NOAA updates El Nino labeling this year in the United States to reflect tropical warming and influence global temperature records.
NOAA says El Nino may form between July and September, with forecast uncertainty and potential for higher global temperatures.
NOAA forecasts El Nino formation between July and September worldwide, increasing temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns.
Japanese researchers and NOAA scientists report that a prolonged La Nina, followed by an El Nino transition and greenhouse gas forcing, increased Earth's energy imbalance and global temperatures in 2022-2025.
NOAA-related seasonal forecast assessments in July 2026 project record-strength 2026-27 El Niño using Niño 3.4 and NOAA relative ONI, with strongest global temperature impacts expected in 2027.
Japanese researchers and U.S. meteorologists say a 2020-2023 triple-dip La Nina and revised NOAA indexing contributed to a global temperature jump beginning in 2023.
Hansen, Kharecha, Morgan, and Vest argue that 2026 global heat trends and energy-balance changes reflect human-caused forcing, not El Nino alone, with aerosols a key contributor.
NOAA projects El Nino development between July and September; global temperatures could rise temporarily worldwide.
NOAA projects El Nino development with 50-60 percent likelihood in July through September, with global temperature and rainfall implications.
NOAA reports a 50-60 percent chance of El Nino developing from July to September, potentially lifting global temperatures toward record highs.
University of Tokyo researchers and NOAA link a prolonged La Nina and an updated El Nino index to a 2022 energy imbalance increase, raising global temperatures worldwide in 2022-2025.
Forecasts project a possible El Nino in 2026-2027 while ocean heat acceleration and higher climate sensitivity are linked to faster sea-surface warming.
NOAA forecasts El Nino now
Scientists attribute higher global temperatures from 2023 to 2025 to extended La Nina and shifting El Nino cycles amid ongoing warming.
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NOAA announced Pacific El Nino onset with a 63% chance of sea surface temperatures exceeding 2.0 C, while Israel and the United States opposed a UN climate obligations resolution.
NOAA reported La Niña ended in 2024-2025 and said El Niño is likely to develop later in 2026, affecting hurricane seasons and winter precipitation planning.
NOAA forecast released May 14 predicts El Nino emergence with an 82% chance in two to three months and possible persistence through winter 2026-27.
World Meteorological Organization provides ENSO outlook for March-May 2026 with rising El Nino risk worldwide.
El Nino forecast develops by summer 2026, affecting weather and temperatures worldwide.
NOAA forecasts El Nino development with 62 percent odds for June through August, potentially influencing global temperatures and the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.
WMO reports El Nino returns in 2026, with global temperature implications and regional flood risks across Peru, Ecuador, and adjacent South American regions.
WMO and international monitoring centers report El Nino returning in 2026 worldwide, with potential global temperature rise and rainfall pattern shifts.
NOAA forecasts El Nino development by June to August with global temperature and hurricane season implications.
NOAA forecasts El Nino development in July-September with 50-60 percent probability worldwide, potentially raising global temperatures.
WMO reports El Nino and La Nina dynamics tied to record 2024 temperatures and near term forecasts through 2026.
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NOAA forecasts El Nino forming in summer and persisting through 2026 across global regions.