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Last Update: 08/01/2026 at 12:00 PM EST
Super El Niño Could Push Global Temperatures and Weather Extremes
Coverage from Nature, Inside Climate News, and others
Articles
38
Active Days
139
The Topic
A developing El Niño has been confirmed in the tropical Pacific, with forecasts ranging from strong to potentially among the strongest events observed. The pattern is expected to raise heat, drought, flooding, wildfire, and coral-bleaching risks in different regions, while global warming may intensify impacts beyond those associated with historical El Niño events. Australia is a major focus, with forecasts indicating increased heat and lower rainfall risks, although the event’s regional effects remain uncertain.
First Article: 03/12/26
Latest Article: 07/28/26
Summary
- El Niño is underway in the tropical Pacific, with weakening trade winds and atmospheric changes supporting the declaration.
- Forecasts allow for a strong or potentially record-strength event, but model uncertainty remains substantial.
- Australia faces increased risks of heat, lower rainfall, bushfires, frost, and Great Barrier Reef coral bleaching.
- El Niño-related flooding and drought risks extend across parts of the Americas, Africa, Asia, and the Amazon.
- Human-caused warming is expected to make heat and other weather extremes more severe than during comparable historical El Niño events.
- A strong event could contribute to a record-warm global year, with some projections pointing to 2027.
History
This topic is new, but as new articles are added to it this area will summarize shifts, changes and expansions of the issues.
Featured
05-14-2026
Nature reports NOAA forecasts a likely El Nino between May and July, with higher chances by December, as tropical Pacific wind dynamics remain the main uncertainty.
05-12-2026
Fredi Otto and other researchers warn that a developing El Nino could amplify extreme heat, droughts, floods, and wildfire risk this year under a human-warmed baseline.
06-16-2026
The Bureau of Meteorology declared El Niño in the tropical Pacific and warned climate change could amplify Australian extreme heat, drought-related bushfire risk, and Great Barrier Reef stress.
Timeline: 139 Days
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Additional Articles
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The Bureau of Meteorology declared El Nino underway in the tropical Pacific and warned on Australia heat and bushfire amplification as global temperatures near 1.5C.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology projects a developing El Niño may peak near record-strength Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies, increasing odds of top-20% warm temperatures and low rainfall during August to October.
Forecast centers project a strong El Nino may develop later in the year, potentially reaching super-event thresholds and increasing global drought and flood risks.
Scripps climate modelers in Science Advances (date unspecified) assessed marine cloud brightening over the Pacific to estimate impacts on super El Nino events.
A modelling study proposes marine cloud brightening over the eastern Pacific to dampen El Niño warming, but results suggest possible earlier and stronger La Niña impacts.
NOAA forecasts stronger El Nino this fall and estimates elevated odds of very strong warming in the equatorial Pacific, with increased risks of droughts, floods, and cyclone activity changes across multiple regions.
WMO and NOAA forecast a strengthening El Niño during 2026, with elevated drought, heavy rainfall, and heat-wave risks that require early government and humanitarian preparation.
Axel Timmermann and researchers report an 80 percent El Nino development chance by September, with climate change expected to amplify impacts across the Pacific and beyond.
NOAA officials and forecasters report a potentially historic El Niño forming in the Pacific, with South Florida hurricane and coastal flooding risks shaped by wind shear and sea-level rise.
Copernicus Climate Change Service, via ECMWF, said April sea-surface temperatures nearly matched 2024 records as developing El Niño raises risk of extreme weather and a possible hottest year in 2027.
NOAA confirmed El Nino development and forecasts a 63% chance of an ultra-strong event impacting global weather and regional disaster risk late fall and early winter.
A study using 13 climate models reports that super El Nino-related North American weather impacts weaken and shift eastward once warming exceeds about 2C.
WMO forecasts an 80% chance of El Niño developing by August and a 90% chance persisting through November, driven by warm tropical Pacific waters.
NOAA forecasts strengthening El Niño to reach historic intensity probabilities in fall and early winter, increasing global drought, flood, heat-wave, and wildfire risks.
NOAA expects a very strong El Nino and Vermont officials plan around probabilistic seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts influenced more by North Atlantic and Arctic weather.
Forecast centers warn that a developing El Nino this year could raise global temperatures and intensify extreme weather across the United States and adjacent regions.
Forecasters predicted an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño in October to December 2026, driven by ENSO ocean-atmosphere shifts that affect rainfall and drought risk.
NOAA CPC ONI v5 and IBTrACS analysis links La Niña to more Atlantic hurricane landfalls and higher U.S. hurricane damages through 2025.
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Forecast models estimate a 62% chance El Nino develops this summer and persists through year end, increasing drought and heat risks and rainfall anomalies across multiple regions.
ECMWF forecast data project central equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures could reach around 3 C above average late in the year, raising risk of a super El Nino with broad climate impacts.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology forecast a strong El Nino in the tropical Pacific for late 2026, with excessive Americas rainfall and drought risk in Asia.
WMO increased confidence in a strong El Nino forecast during coming months, projecting higher global temperatures and regional dryness into 2027.
NOAA confirmed El Niño onset with a 63% likelihood of historic intensity by late fall or early winter, raising regional extreme-weather risks worldwide.
US Climate Prediction Center forecasts increased El Niño formation risk by late July, with potential strong-to-very-strong conditions affecting drought, flooding, energy, and food systems across multiple regions.
NOAA forecasts potential El Nino strengthening this fall, citing elevated tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and expected North American weather shifts.
NOAA and forecast models project higher odds of a super El Niño forming later in 2025, with global temperature spikes and regional rainfall shifts expected through winter.
World Meteorological Organization forecasts mid-year El Nino development, warning of higher global temperature and rainfall extremes as Pacific subsurface heat intensifies.
World Meteorological Organisation reporting says a potential El Nino developing over New Zealand winter could raise global temperatures and reshape regional extremes.
NOAA forecast updates and Columbia University assessments in the equatorial Pacific indicate rising odds of El Niño development between June and January.
World Meteorological Organization announced El Niño onset in late May, forecasting Super El Niño conditions and warning of global heat and extreme-weather impacts.
Meteorologists predict El Nino may emerge between June and August 2026, potentially raising global temperatures and altering hurricane activity.
Meteorologists warn of a potential super El Nino, forecast to emerge in coming months, affecting weather across the United States, Canada, and the Pacific Rim.
CPC forecasters project El Nino formation by summer worldwide, with rising temperatures and impacts on crops and drought risk.
French and Spanish authorities reported large wildfires during El Nino conditions, including mass evacuations in Gironde and fatalities and displacement near Madrid.
WMO warned in 2025 that record excess heat driven by greenhouse gases is rapidly warming oceans and intensifying extreme events, with El Niño expected to increase temperatures into 2026 and 2027.