Key Points

• The central finding is that forest carbon protocols do not fully account for climate-amplified carbon loss risk in U.S. forests.
• Wildfire emerges as the largest climate-sensitive threat to long-term carbon durability, with drought and insect outbreaks also contributing.
• Risk is not evenly distributed; the highest projected losses are concentrated in California and the Intermountain West.
• The study estimates current buffer pools would need to be roughly six times larger to cover expected losses over a century for studied projects.
• The analysis combines forest plot data, satellite observations, and machine learning to produce carbon-loss risk maps.
• The work points to a policy adjustment problem rather than rejection of forest offsets, arguing that better science could improve project siting and reserve design.