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Last Update: 08/01/2026 at 3:01 PM EST
Global Warming Accelerates Toward 1.5°C
Coverage from EurekAlert!, Nature, and others
Articles
77
Active Days
175
The Topic
Multiple analyses indicate that global warming has proceeded faster since the mid-2010s than during the preceding decades, with human activity remaining the dominant long-term driver. Recent studies estimate warming rates of roughly 0.27°C to 0.35°C per decade, while scientists continue to debate how much recent heat reflects declining aerosol pollution, natural variability, or possible cloud feedbacks. If the higher rates persist, long-term warming could exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold before 2030, increasing pressure for rapid emissions cuts and stronger adaptation.
First Article: 01/01/00
Latest Article: 06/30/26
Summary
- Recent analyses estimate warming at about 0.27°C to 0.35°C per decade, faster than the roughly 0.2°C-per-decade pace observed across much of 1970–2015.
- The last three years were reported as the warmest in the instrumental record, with 2024 exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for a single year.
- Statistical studies that adjust for El Niño, volcanic activity, and solar variation find evidence of an accelerated long-term warming signal across multiple temperature datasets.
- Reduced sulfur pollution from shipping and other sources may have unmasked additional warming by allowing more solar energy to reach the surface.
- Researchers disagree over the contribution of natural variability and possible low-cloud feedbacks, and whether the recent acceleration will persist.
- At current emissions levels, the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is shrinking rapidly and could be exhausted within several years.
History
The story has sharpened from a general warning about faster warming into a more quantified and contested claim: recent studies now estimate a higher post-2015 warming rate and explicitly argue that 1.5°C could be breached before 2030 if it persists. The emphasis is also more interpretive, with fresh debate over whether aerosol cuts, natural variability, or cloud feedbacks explain the acceleration.
The story shifts from broad confirmation of rising warming to a stronger emphasis on acceleration, with new attention to adaptation pressure and the fragility of the observation systems underpinning these conclusions. It also broadens the source base with additional datasets and institutions, reinforcing the warning that the 1.5°C window is closing fast.
Featured
06-10-2026
IGCC indicator updates report 1.37 C warming in 2025, accelerating sea level rise, and record energy imbalance driven by human greenhouse gas emissions.
03-06-2026
Researchers Rahmstorf and Foster report warming is accelerating globally after adjusting for natural variability, with a rate of 0.35 C per decade.
03-09-2026
Stefan Rahmstorf led a Geophysical Research Letters study showing accelerating warming through 2025 on a global scale.
Timeline: 175 Days
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Additional Articles
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UN climate talks in Bonn heard a new indicators report projecting a permanent Paris 1.5C breach within about four years.
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Scientists Foster and Rahmstorf report that global warming accelerates, threatening Paris 1.5C breach between 2026 and 2029.
Scientists debate warming drivers as aerosol reductions and El Nino influence temperatures globally.
Researchers report accelerated global warming since 2015 across global temperatures, with 2024 readings above 1.5 C above preindustrial baselines.
The IGCC 2025 report estimates human-induced warming reached 1.37 C in 2025 and could approach 1.5 C within four years.
Researchers revise plausible carbon pollution pathways in the 2020s, finding best-case warming still exceeds the Paris 1.5 degrees Celsius target despite fewer extreme projections.
Scientists report accelerated warming rates globally, with 1.5 C threshold possible this decade if emissions do not fall.
More than 70 scientists report human-induced warming at 1.37C in 2025 and a 1.5C carbon budget likely exhausted within about three years.
International researchers using IGCC fourth edition indicators report 1.37 C human-induced warming in 2025 and a record energy imbalance, with marine heatwaves rising through 2025.
More than 70 climate scientists report 2025 warming near 1.39C and rapidly rising ocean heat, estimating 1.5C breach risk around 2030.
IGCC warns human activity has pushed warming to 1.37 C and reduced the remaining 1.5 C carbon budget as Earth heat uptake reaches record levels.
Indicators of Global Climate Change synthesis reports human-driven warming at 1.37°C in 2025, record CO2e emissions, accelerating sea level rise, and 65 marine heatwave days.
Earth System Science Data reports 2025 record indicators of warming, emissions, and accelerated sea-level and marine heatwave impacts driven mainly by human activity.
IGCC report projects 1.5C warming by decade end, citing human-driven energy imbalance and accelerating ocean heat, sea-level rise, and extreme events.
Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf report accelerating global warming since 2015 across five global temperature datasets, with potential to surpass 1.5 degrees by 2030.
The IGCC 2026 report in Earth System Science Data says human activities drove 2025 warming to 1.37C as 2024 emissions hit record 56.8 Gt CO2e and 2025 remained among the warmest years.
Climate scientists report record Earth energy imbalance and accelerating ocean heat content in 2025, warning carbon budgets for 1.5C will be used within about three years.
More than 70 scientists report accelerating human-driven warming in 2025, with record ocean heat content, higher seas, and frequent marine heatwaves.
IGCC findings in 2026 attribute 2025 warming to human activities, citing record energy imbalance, accelerating sea level rise, and a near-term 1.5C carbon budget depletion risk.
IGCC climate scientists assess 2025 as the third warmest year on record, attributing most warming to human greenhouse gas emissions and warning about the remaining 1.5 C carbon budget as talks occur in Bonn, Germany.
Global scientific agencies report in 2025 that warming is accelerating worldwide.
Intergovernmental science bodies report that human fossil fuel emissions have driven rapid global warming, with 2024 above 1.5C and COP30 ending without new fossil fuel agreements worldwide.
Researchers analyze global temperature datasets in the 2010s and 2020s worldwide, reporting accelerated warming and a potential 1.5 C breach within the current year.
Researchers report accelerated warming since 2015 and a path to 1.5 degree exceedance before 2030 worldwide.
Scientists publish acceleration finding in Geophysical Research Letters, stating warming may exceed 1.5 C before 2030 if emissions remain unmanaged.
Global scientific and policy communities assess anthropogenic warming from 1988 to present across international forums.
Scientists report statistically significant acceleration of global warming since 2015 based on five global temperature datasets.
Global warming rate accelerates since 2015, confirmed by Potsdam Institute study across five temperature datasets.
PIK researchers reveal accelerated global warming since 2015, after removing natural variability, on a global scale.
PIK researchers report accelerated global warming since 2015 based on global observations from NASA, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth.
Potsdam Institute researchers report warming acceleration since 2015, globally, with 2023 and 2024 as record warm years.
Potsdam Institute study reports global warming accelerates since 2015, globally, based on multiple temperature datasets.
Researchers report acceleration in global warming since 2015 using NASA NOAA and Berkeley Earth data.
Researchers analyzing global temperature data report accelerated warming since 2015 after accounting for natural variability.
Researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research report accelerated warming since 2015 after adjusting for natural fluctuations globally.
Scientists report accelerating warming and potential breach of 1.5 C limit by 2030 if emissions stay high.
Researchers from Potsdam Institute report accelerated global warming since 2015 across multiple datasets, warning that 1.5C Paris target risk increases by 2030.
Researchers at Potsdam Institute report warming rate acceleration to 0.35 C per decade since 2015, in a March 2026 Geophysical Research Letters study.
Researchers in Germany find global warming accelerates since 2015.
Foster and Rahmstorf report acceleration in global warming using adjusted GMT, in 2026, global scope.
Researchers report accelerated global warming since 2015, across global datasets, with risk of 1.5 C breach before 2030.
UN and scientific agencies report 2024 as the warmest year and a 12-month period above 1.5°C, urging faster global emissions reductions.
Researchers Rahmstorf and Foster analyzed global temperature data since 2015 to assess warming-rate acceleration on a global scale.
Researchers report accelerated global warming since 2015, worldwide, raising the risk of 1.5C breach before 2030 and higher coastal sea levels.
Researchers report global warming acceleration from 2015 to 2025, across the planet, with implications that rapid emissions reductions are required to meet climate targets.
PIK researchers report accelerated global warming since around 2015 using five temperature datasets worldwide.
Researchers report a statistically significant acceleration of global warming since 2015 across five global temperature datasets.
PIK researchers report accelerated global warming since 2015 based on five major global temperature datasets worldwide.
Scientists report 2025 warming linked to rising emissions worldwide.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research researchers analyzed five global temperature datasets to show warming rate acceleration since 2013-2014 worldwide.
Researchers report accelerated warming since 2015 worldwide, with implications for policy and adaptation.
Researchers report accelerated warming since 2015 globally across five global datasets.
Scientists report accelerated warming globally over the last decade based on multiple temperature data sets.
Researchers report that warming has accelerated since 2014, with 1.5 degree threshold potentially reached by 2028 globally.
Researchers publish a Geophysical Research Letters study showing accelerated warming from 2015 to 2025 worldwide, with 2024 the hottest year on record and 1.5 C breach risk rising.
World climate agencies report 2025 as among the warmest years globally.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research researchers report accelerated warming since 2015 using five major global temperature datasets worldwide.
Researchers at Potsdam Institute analyze five global temperature records to show warming acceleration since 2015 and risk of 1.5 C being exceeded before 2030.
PIK study finds global warming rate accelerates since 2015 based on NASA, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth data.
Jason Bordoff and Noah Kaufman argue revised climate damages and worst-case scenarios do not lessen mitigation urgency, citing Europe heat risks and US regulatory rollbacks.
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Jim Skea briefed SBSTA64 in Bonn on advancing IPCC Seventh Assessment work, including a 2027 climate and cities review, adaptation emphasis, and greenhouse-gas reporting methodologies.
Climate scientists revise projected warming ranges in a report, concluding that dangerous impacts remain likely even with carbon removal potential.
Scientists report accelerated warming globally over the last decade, with implications for 1.5 degree target timelines.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research researchers report warming acceleration since 2015 globally.
Scientists warn that warming has accelerated since 2015, raising risk of crossing 1.5 C threshold by 2030 globally.
Researchers from the Potsdam Institute warn that warming acceleration since 2015 could push past 1.5 C before 2030, depending on emission decisions.
Potsdam Institute researchers report acceleration of global warming since 2015 in global temperature records after removing natural variability.
Scientists report accelerated warming in recent years, with global temperatures rising faster than projections and potential 1.5 degree threshold risk if emissions persist.
Geophysical Research Letters study reports 0.35 C global warming rise over the last decade with acceleration beginning around 2015.
Copernicus and international researchers report accelerating global temperature and ice-loss trends in the 2020s, raising near-term adaptation urgency worldwide.
UNEP hosted Katharine Hayhoe and Andrea Hinwood on May 28, 2026 in Geneva to discuss human-driven warming, methane benefits, and the need for stronger Paris-aligned fossil fuel phaseout.
Researchers warn that accelerated global warming could breach the 1.5C Paris target before 2030.
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Global climate studies in 2025 and recent years show accelerating warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions, with rising sea levels and extreme weather worldwide.
Global climate scientists warn that the 1.5 C limit could be breached by the early 2030s worldwide, prompting urgent policy action.