Key Points

• The dominant signal is malaria risk in Africa, where multiple studies project that extreme weather disruptions will drive most of the additional burden by 2050.
• Evidence consistently distinguishes ecological warming effects from operational disruption: flooding, storms, and infrastructure damage weaken bed nets, diagnostics, treatment, and surveillance.
• Several African country reports describe the same adaptation gap: surveillance and early warning are improving in concept, but technical capacity, funding, and cross-sector coordination remain limited.
• The topic is not limited to long-term projections; real-world climate-sensitive outbreaks are also being linked to recent events, including dengue transmission in Peru and Los Angeles County.
• Heat risk appears as a parallel climate-health pressure, with one study projecting very long heatwave exposure across parts of Africa by late century and land-use change intensifying the hazard.
• The evidence base is moderately dense and fairly coherent, but it spans different diseases, regions, and timescales, so the cluster is thematically unified rather than narrowly focused.
• Current framing is shifting from broad climate-disease association toward implementation questions: where control systems fail, which regions are most exposed, and what operational adaptations reduce risk.